Instead, Washington and its allies should develop a defense strategy capable of deterring and, if necessary, defeating Russia and China at the same time. Matthew Kroenig is a columnist at Foreign Policy and senior director of the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor in the Department of Government and the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. This would mean China could mobilize more people in a total war against NATO. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the world's biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago. Weve put together this guide to explain the relationship between China and the military alliance, explore their respective strengths and answer questions about what the future might hold for NATO and China. As democracies, NATO countries need significant buy-in from their populations in order to take on a major conflict. Geopolitics, It has over 1.4 billion people, compared to the combined populations of NATO countries 946 million. The overall size of a military force is often not enough to determine the outcome of a conflict. Jessica Chen Weiss, formerly a senior advisor for policy planning at the State Department under the Biden administration, makes the case that the United States is becoming consumed by competition with China, a strategy that could lead to dangerous conflict. Its leaders know that a war with Russia will be MAD (mutually assured destruction). WARSAW, Poland -- NATO's chief said Wednesday that the military alliance has seen some signs that China may be planning to support Russia in its war in Ukraine, and strongly urged Beijing to desist from what would be a violation of international law. In second place was China with estimated . Opinion | China is the world's most populous country, with a population of more than 1.4 billion people, on the other hand Russia is the largest country in the world by area, covering over 17,098,246 square kilometres. Crucially, China strongly opposes the formation of a NATO-type alliance in Asia. Please follow our comment guidelines, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others beliefs. "The situation is still very tense and China is trying to destroy the status quo or at least the symbol of the status quo, which is the median line of the Taiwan Strait. This site is owned and operated by Duncan Ball. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a frank discussion about the Biden administrations China policy and alternatives that it ought to consider. So far, more . Twitter:@matthewkroenig. He stressed that while NATO is no party to the Ukraine conflict its tasks are to ensure that Ukraine prevails and to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine and becoming a full-fledged war between Russia and NATO., He said the main message from the meeting in Warsaw was that we will provide support to Ukraine for as long as it takes., It would be a "tragedy for the Ukrainians if President Putin wins in Ukraine, Stoltenberg said, and also dangerous for all of us because it would send the message to all authoritarian leaders that when they use military force, they get what they want.. Will we reach that stage where we will be talking nuclear? The answer, according to many politicians and defense experts, is that Washington must moderate its response to Russia in Europe to focus on the greater threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific. There is strong public opinion in China against the alliance following the 1999 bombing by NATO of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Want to read more on this topic or region? Chinas population is significantly larger than NATOs. In September 2018, Russia hosted the militaries of China and Mongolia as a part of the Vostok 2018 military exercise. Finally, if youre interested in NATOs position in the modern world, check out the book Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World by H. R. McMaster. By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. In order to fully understand any possible conflict between China and NATO, we need to think about how China views NATO. China has stated clearly that it will reunite with Taiwan and is willing to do this by force if necessary. These differences may also be crucial in determining the outcome of any war between China and NATO. The UK is the second biggest overall spender in Nato, putting nearly 50bn into defence annually, compared with Germany's 45bn, France's 42bn and Italy's 20bn. This would allow them to dominate the skies in any conflict between them. OTOH, it's likely that China would hold onto Taiwan, thus they would likely claim victory for the Sino-Russian side. Chinese opinion turned further against the alliance when later newspaper reports suggested the attack was a deliberate action by NATO as they thought the embassy was being used to send communications for the Yugoslav army. The core principle of Nato is collective defence. With over one million more frontline troops, it is clear that NATO is much more powerful than China. Cue the protests from other parts of the globe: A chorus of nations are accusing Washington of fostering unfair competition. Some in Taiwan believe that it is a matter if, not when, China will attack. The question would be, would this be seen as an attack on NATO or not? Opinion | One thing that has become crystal clear as Russia continues to advance in Ukraine is how helpless the United States-led Nato alliance looks despite calls to act more decisively to stop the war. In recent weeks, Biden has sent several thousand U.S. troops to reinforce NATOs eastern flankand for good reason. China has pointedly refused to criticize the invasion of Ukraine while echoing Moscows claim that the U.S. and NATO were to blame for provoking the Kremlin. The island has been self-governing since 1949 and a democracy since 1996. China has almost 150 less warships than NATO does. This is a major reason why China is not seen as a significant threat to NATO. 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Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on The Vostok 2022 exercises will take place in September, with forces moving in areas near the east of Russia and the Sea of Japan. Others have expressed hope that Washington can peel these powers apart or even align with Russia against China, but these are not realistic solutions. The US and other countries have already supplied Ukraine with weapons, anti-aircraft systems and intelligence capabilities. The following states joined the treaty after 1949: Greece, Germany, Turkey and Spain. These cookies are used to improve your experience and provide more personalized service to you. Moreover, the United States could go so far as to double defense spending (currently 2.8 percent of GDP) and still remain below its Cold War average (close to 7 percent of GDP). Trumps executive overreach on the border wall was wrong, so is Bidens student loan nonsense Russia won China's backing in its showdown with the West over Ukraine as Beijing agreed with Moscow the US-led NATO military alliance should not admit new members. But the US has a great advantage in the air and the sea. Russia. The answer is not so simple but the consequences will be unimaginable. However, China can and will ask Russia to be cognizant of China's interests too and not to be blindly against China. There are currently 28 member countries. Russia would not have invaded, the war never would have started a . Written by the former American General and National Security Advisor, it is one of the best theories on what NATO stands for today and how the alliance should tackle global threats. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? Indeed, the Biden administrations National Defense Strategy, which has been delayed due to the Ukraine crisis, is expected to focus on China without offering a clear solution to the two-front-war problem. To be sure, developing such a strategy will be challenging, but there are a number of ways to begin to square the circle. Throughout the war, the US and other NATO allies have been steadily increasing the amount of security assistance for Ukraine, outfitting Kyiv with billions of dollars in advanced artillery systems, missile defense batteries, and other deadly weapons. Competing with China militarily means competing globally, not just in Asia. In recent decades China has risen to become a major global power. In short, publishing a defense strategy that can only handle one of the United States great-power rivals (which is what is expected from the forthcoming national defense strategy) is planning to fail. Russia has invaded its' former Republics and thus causing NATO to declare war on them. See here for the latest updates. However, as Chinas influence has grown it has begun to challenge the dominance of Western powers. Worrying signs in Punjab: Is AAP in control? Answer (1 of 62): I see alot of Americans here with an idea that such a war between NATO and Russia and China would be an easy win. 2 March 2023 at 07:34. . Al Nisr Publishing LLC 2023. Policy-makers in the American seats of power clearly want to prevent even the weak but potentially growing cooperation between Germany with its European allies and Russia or China, which had been . To address this problem, many have proposed answers that simply will not work. A good strategy, however, starts with clear goals, and Washingtons objectives are to maintain peace and stability in both Europe and Asia. Nato will surely want to stay out of this conflict as long as possible. Otherwise, the planet may not survive this time this MAD situation. up as tough on Beijing, even seeking to contain the rise of the worlds second-biggest economy. In turn, Putin is betting that Western fatigue will hand him the victory his mauled army has so far been unable to achieve; meanwhile, Xi is sizing up Americas will to defend free and sovereign nations, should he decide to invade Taiwan. Wood said he does not know if that is necessarily true, but said Russia . By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. The 2010 document made no mention of China, but the new one addressed Beijing's . The Second Cold War, Cold War II, or the New Cold War are terms that refer to heightened political, social, ideological, informational, and military tensions in the 21st century. China is not a direct threat to NATO. They do simulations or war plans. NATO is a system of collective security: its independent member states agree to defend each other against attacks by others countries. Beijing and Moscow have invested heavily in their militaries, but only boast around 3,000 and 4,000 total aircraft respectively. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? Actually, there are a two clear reasons why China is not in NATO: Only countries in Europe or North America can join NATO. To be clear, it is incumbent on the White House to communicate to Beijing that supplying lethal aid to Russia would be met with economic consequences and cause irreparable damage to Chinas relationship with the West. China is also one contiguous territory, whereas NATO is divided across the North Atlantic. The military that controls the sky and can achieve air superiority historically as overcome almost any military force. As China wishes to reduce Americas influence in the region, the creation of a formal alliance between the US and Western-aligned countries in East Asia would be directly opposed to Chinas strategic interests. Just NATO, will do. Moreover, if Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds in Ukraine, why would he stop there? Firstly, NATO has by far the most military personnel with over five million active troops thanks largely to the US military. Nikkei Asia /a > Who would win /a > NATO vs. Russia and China are geared for defense very! NEW FOR SUBSCRIBERS: FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. This alliance of autocracies, as Steven Lee Myers aptly deemed it, is built on a mutual belief that the Wests supremacy has declined, and that as great powers, China and Russia are entitled to rule their own spheres of influence and to use brute force to suppress human rights, self-determination and democracy. The other countries involved will include several ex-Soviet nations, China, India, Laos, Mongolia, Nicaragua and Syria. Explore the benefits included in your subscription. Copyright 2019 As a communist country more closely aligned with the Soviets during the Cold War, there was no possibility for China to join the alliance. This is especially critical in light of recent reports from American intelligence agencies that China may supply Russia with weapons to aid its war against Ukraine, which would be an alarming escalation and a break from Chinas ostensibly neutral stance on the war. ,